04
Jul
2017

Indices Divergence

Market Commentary
Indices Divergence

An overlay between Dow30, SP500 and Nasdaq100 reveals an interesting divergence between these major indices. The Dow30 made a reluctant new high today, the SP500 stayed flat and the Nasdaq100 plunged. It does not happen very often, but when it does, a correlation play is possible.

You can sell Dow30 and buy Nasdaq100, to later close both trades when these two indices correlate again. Other option in this case, is just shorting the highest indice of the correlation which made a reluctant new high.

18
Jun
2017

Buy VIX futures

Market Commentary
Buy VIX futures

The VIX is around 25-year low levels and the market is just asleep at the wheel. It might be a good idea to go long vix futures at this time. Volatility is mean-reverting, so the VIX slowly drifts downwards towards its long-run level. The futures already price that in, so they don't move as much as the VIX does, but we can very well make a good profit with VIX levels as low as they are.

19
Apr
2017

Double Top in the DAX

Market Commentary
Double Top in the DAX

The DAX30 has made a double top pattern in the monthly chart. A monster pattern with a theoretical correction price of 6,000, a whooping 50% crash. Thus my emphasis in theoretical. However German demographics are a disaster, very much like Japanesese demographics in the 90s, so don't discard a big crash in the DAX30 just yet.

We missed the trade a few days back at the exact double top price -shame on me-. We will wait for a few up days -maybe this slim trendline holds- to go short closer to the 12,401 level, or a breakout below 11,853 to go short.

For now, place two sell limits at 12,390 and at 12,180.

17
Apr
2017

Time to short gold

Market Commentary
Time to short gold

A good short trade scenario is present in gold. If $1325/oz is not broken to the upside, gold is likely going to down to $750/oz. We don't know what will happen but we can take the trade risking only 3% in absolute terms, to make much more, making it an asymmetric trade. So, short gold. Stoploss at $1,339/oz. If the SL is never hit, leave this trade for the long run.

08
Apr
2017

Triple Top for AUDUSD

Market Commentary
Triple Top for AUDUSD

AUDUSD is in a range bound market between 0.7736 and 0.7158, and falling back from a triple top pattern. A good shorting opportunity is here, hopefully reaping profits from the next few weeks.